2013年5月30日星期四

(主場 29/5/2013) 何謂派貨日

上周四,恒指挫591點,國指下跌306點,全日成交增至836億元,技術上俗稱派貨日(distribution day)。
派貨日乃大市於高位扭轉向下的重要指標,坊間定義眾多,惟“How to Make Money in Stocks - William J. O’nell”一書裡,“How You Can Learn to identify Stock Market Tops” 之版本較為可取。
「I call this “heavy” volume without further price progress up.” The average doesn't have to close down for the day, but in most instances it will, making the distribution (selling) much easier to see, as professional investors liquidate stock.」(Pg. 209)
根據經驗,上述概念可應用於不同長度之趨勢上,但實際情況略有不同。例如一個較長期的趨勢轉向上,應出現多次派貨日,市場才明顯地調頭向下︰
「Normal liquidation near the market peak will usually occur on three to six specific days over a period of four or five weeks. In other words, the market comes under distribution while it’s advancing! This is one reason so few people know how to recognize distribution. After four or five days of definite Distribution over and span of four or five weeks, the general market will almost always turn down.」(Pg. 209~210)
另外,咱們亦要密切留意派貨日後之情況。若然上周四打後一兩星期,反彈明顯虛弱,轉向之可能性便會大增。
「You’ll know that the initial bounce back is feeble if︰
(1) the index advances in price on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day, but on volume that is lower than that of the day before,
(2) the average makes little net upward price progress compared with its progress the day before, or
(3) the market average recovers less than half of initial drop from its former absolute intraday high.
When you see these weak rallies and failures, further selling is advisable.」(Pg. 212)
本年2月5日,港股同樣出現派貨日,其後近兩個月的市況非常值得參考。
題外話,許多投資人不明白如何運用上述指標,其實問題多出於個人心態之上。技術分析乃從歷史數據得來之統計學,謹用來評估其後最高或然率之市況,可惜大部份人只懂得以「準定唔準」等黑白思維作批判 (此乃「求學只是求分數」教育制度之遺禍)。其次,縱使指數調頭向下,市場總會出現我行我素之份子 (作為沙漠上之甘露,在壞氣氛中上升之股票,其升幅多數更為驚人)。
個人崇尚炒作個別股份,仍會留意其他市場之訊號。刻下,期權莊家開價的引伸波幅(VOL)甚高,即表明期權作手均認為整體波幅將十分之大。身邊夥伴不論看好或看淡,亦不約而同地認為往後將大單邊市況,惟方向有待確應。
作為順勢投資人,根本無需對未知的事多作猜想,答案出現後趕搭順風車便可。保留長線倉位及個別炒作季績的股份外,增持現金來減低下行風險,保護本月利潤,乃費高的對應策略。